This Week’s TMR: What Happened with the Election Polls (Again)?

Syracuse, N.Y. – John Zogby, founder and senior partner of John Zogby Strategies, will discuss polling practices and this year’s election during a Zoom public forum from 8 to 9 a.m. Thursday hosted by Syracuse University’s Thursday Morning Roundtable.

Pre-election polls in the United States did not miss quite as badly as in 2016, but the 2020 presidential and Senate elections were much closer than polls suggested. Many who follow public opinion polls are understandably asking how that could happen, particularly after the polling community took aggressive steps to understand and address the problems from 2016.

Zogby, who has spent the past four decades as one of the most accurate pollsters in the world, says the problem is that too many polls rely on turnout models that fall short of actual Election Day turnout demographics. Most notable, he says in this commentary and will discuss in more detail Thursday, is the tendency to oversample Democrats and under sample Republicans.

Now in its 55th year, Thursday Morning Roundtable features speakers who discuss current topics. Following the forum, residents can use the chat function to ask questions and Emily Winiecki, community engagement coordinator for Syracuse University’s Office of Community Engagement, will moderate the Q&A session.

Here are the details: 

“Zogby Polling” with John Zogby, founder and senior partner of John Zogby Strategies, hosted by Syracuse University’s Thursday Morning Roundtable.
8-9 a.m. Thursday, Nov. 19.

To watch and participate in the forum through a Zoom webinar:

Link:

https://syracuseuniversity.zoom.us/j/94020058499?pwd=Vnd4NGwxZ3VkK1c2bG5sWjhML3lQUT09

Meeting ID: 940 2005 8499
Passcode: 104732

Past TMR Recordings: To watch this year’s TMR Zoom public forums, visit the Syracuse University Office of Community Engagement channel at https://video.syr.edu/channel/Office+of+Community+Engagement/184051671

Next Week’s TMR: TMR is off next week for Thanksgiving. It will resume Dec. 3 with the “State of Criminal Justice in Onondaga County” with District Attorney William Fitzpatrick and Syracuse University College of Law Dean Craig M. Boise.

Thursday Morning Roundtable (TMR) is sponsored by Syracuse University’s Office of Community Engagement. TMR brings together a mix of citizens representing business, nonprofit, educational, and government organizations to examine community issues. Since its inception in 1965, more than 1,600 programs have been delivered to TMR audiences. Listen to past TMR presentations through WCNY.